Who Will Be the Next Justice?
A ranked field, with the evidence shown and the guesswork labeled. As of August 24, 2026 — this page is built to be revised.
No vacancy, and no change since Ketanji Brown Jackson arrived in June 2022. All nine justices sat the full 2025-26 term. The oldest members are Clarence Thomas (78), Samuel A. Alito Jr. (76) and Sonia Sotomayor (72). The President, asked in April 2026 about coming vacancies: “In theory, it's two — you just read the statistics — it could be two, could be three, could be one. I don't know. I'm prepared to do it.”
The Rules of This Page
The assumption: The field is every serious contender, wherever they sit. The page launched a day earlier limited to the federal courts of appeals; the limitation did not survive its own evidence and was retired within twenty-four hours. It is a simplifying assumption and the reporting contests it — thirteen of the twenty are circuit judges, which is still where the White House's own vetting reportedly points. But the outsiders who force their way in are not the district judges of internet speculation — they are the politicians and the Solicitor General, who carry the most direct evidence in the whole field.
What is fact and what is judgment: The rank is editorial and the criteria are stated: the direct evidence first — a public statement by the President or the Judiciary chairman outranks a reconstructed shortlist, which outranks an advocacy list, which outranks a prediction market — then presence in the 2024-2026 reporting, age, clerkship lineage to the seats most likely to open, and confirmability. Where it exists, Adam Feldman's Trump Alignment Index (one analyst's opinion-language scoring, published on his Legalytics blog and reported by the ABA Journal — not an ABA product and not a validated measure) is cited as a lightly weighted supporting signal. Everything above the rationale line is verified fact; the rationale line is this site's judgment. Unlike 2016 and 2020, there is no published list this time; a former senior White House official told the Washington Examiner in July 2026: “There is a list that exists. I don't know how active the list is being whittled down or whatever, but you can confidently report there's a list.”
Why there is no left-right column: All twenty would move the Court's median rightward or hold it, so there is still no left-right column. Each carries a bench tag instead — circuit, district, executive, Senate, governor, private practice — because the bench turns out to be the live axis: the credentialed-originalist theory of the pick points at the circuit judges, the loyalty theory at the politicians and the President's own lawyers, and the reporting does not resolve which theory wins.
How Conservative, Measured
Each judge below now carries three numbers, and they are not the same kind of number. JuDJIS reads what lawyers who appeared before the judge wrote about them, year by year, on a scale from −1 to +1 — the only one of the three that measures judging, and the best-validated measure in the field. JCS is imputed from nomination politics and fixed for life — Ho and Oldham carry one identical JCS because Texas assigned it to both. CFscore reads pre-appointment campaign donations. Sources and full citations sit in the methodology note below.
The finding worth the page: the front-runners are not drawn from the measured right edge of the bench. Among 451 scored circuit judges, Ho ranks #136, Oldham #166, and Rao #233 — solidly conservative, nowhere near the top. For calibration, the sitting justices this dataset scored when they were circuit judges: John Roberts +0.67, Samuel Alito +0.63, Amy Coney Barrett +0.50, Brett Kavanaugh +0.38, Neil Gorsuch +0.33 and Sonia Sotomayor −0.09. The shortlist is selected for youth, credentials and loyalty — not for the most conservative record lawyers have actually observed.
The Field, Ranked
Most likely to least, as of August 24, 2026. The line above each rationale is verified against the Federal Judicial Center record the name links to; the rationale is ours.
b. 1978 · confirmed July 18, 2018 · Harvard Law · clerked for Alito (2008–09) · on the published 2020 list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.28 [+0.10, +0.46] — #166 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.63 (imputed) · CFscore +1.63 (donations)
Wrote the Fifth Circuit opinion striking the Universal Service Fund on nondelegation grounds, reversed 6–3 in 2025; a 2025 concurrence questioning autopen clemency that the administration later adopted.
Named by TIME as one of the two leading contenders, on the reported White House informal shortlist, and an Alito clerk — the natural heir to the seat most likely to open. At 47-48, young enough for the ambition every account attributes to the White House. Adam Feldman's Trump Alignment Index — one court-watcher's scoring of nine opinions per judge, reported by the ABA Journal — also puts him first at 91; this page treats that as a supporting signal, not a measure.
ABA Journal on Adam Feldman's Trump Alignment Index · Feldman's index methodology (Legalytics, June 2025) · TIME, July 2025
b. February 27, 1973 · confirmed December 14, 2017 · Chicago Law · clerked for Thomas (2005–06) · on the published 2020 list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.33 [+0.16, +0.50] — #136 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.63 (imputed) · CFscore +1.25 (donations)
Announced in 2022 he would no longer hire Yale Law clerks; reversed himself on birthright citizenship in November 2024, which the trade press read as an audition.
The most-named candidate in the whole literature — top of nearly every piece since December 2024, second at 88 on Feldman's index, and campaigning harder than anyone. A Thomas clerk positioned for the Thomas seat. The visibility cuts both ways: he is also the easiest nominee to run a confirmation fight against.
Bloomberg Law, June 2026 · ABA Journal on Adam Feldman's Trump Alignment Index
b. November 13, 1974 · confirmed April 4, 2025 (52–45, as Solicitor General) · Harvard Law · clerked for Scalia (2005–06) · never on a published list
Argued Trump v. United States — the immunity case — as private counsel, and now argues the administration's whole Supreme Court docket, including birthright citizenship with the President in the courtroom.
The strongest non-judge, and it is not close on the evidence: named by Bloomberg Law and Just The News, priced in the market's top tier, a Scalia clerk and Rhodes Scholar. Solicitor General has been the launching seat before; the confirmation liability is that his defining work is the personal representation of the President.
b. 1973 · confirmed March 13, 2019 · Chicago Law · clerked for Thomas (2001–02) · never on a published list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.13 [−0.04, +0.29] — #233 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.40 (imputed) · CFscore +1.18 (donations)
Wrote the panel decision ordering dismissal of the Flynn case, vacated en banc; argued in the Mazars dissent that Congress cannot investigate presidential wrongdoing except through impeachment.
TIME's other leading contender — and third at 83 on Feldman's index — from the administration's favorite bench. Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Ginsburg and Kavanaugh all arrived from the D.C. Circuit. The Mazars dissent is her calling card with this White House. Never on a published Trump list, which matters less than it did — there is no published list this time.
TIME, July 2025 · ABA Journal on Adam Feldman's Trump Alignment Index
b. December 22, 1970 · in the Senate since 2013 · Harvard Law · clerked for Rehnquist (1996–97) · on the published 2020 list
Former Texas solicitor general with nine Supreme Court arguments; on the published 2020 list as a sitting senator.
Carries the single most direct piece of evidence in the whole field: Trump, on the record in January 2026 — 'If I nominate him for the United States Supreme Court, I will get 100% of the vote.' The Judiciary chairman has endorsed the idea and Politico reportedly called him a front-runner. The joke inside Trump's own line — that both parties want him out of the Senate — is also the confirmation math working in his favor.
b. 1981 · confirmed July 29, 2025 · Georgetown Law · no Supreme Court clerkship · never on a published list
JuDJIS: not scored — confirmed in 2025, outside the 1990–2024 window
Trump's former personal lawyer and acting deputy attorney general; ordered the dismissal of the Eric Adams case, triggering mass prosecutor resignations; confirmed to the Third Circuit 50–49.
The loyalty candidate, and the one genuine addition to a field otherwise frozen since 2024. An administration source called him a strong contender within nine months of his confirmation. If the pick is about trust rather than doctrine — the theory the reporting cannot rule out — he jumps everyone above him. The 50–49 circuit vote is the argument against: a Supreme Court fight over him risks actual defeat.
b. 1981 · confirmed November 12, 2020 (56–21) · Michigan Law · no Supreme Court clerkship · never on a published list
JuDJIS: not scored — a district judge; the published JuDJIS covers the circuit bench · CFscore +1.43
Presided over the classified-documents prosecution of the President and dismissed it on Appointments Clause grounds in July 2024; the appeal was dropped after the election.
The most famous district judge in the country, priced in the market's top tier — but the actual reporting is thinner than the fame: Bloomberg Law traces her candidacy to one well-connected activist, and the anonymous descriptions of the White House list say vetted appeals judges. Ranked on the fame and the loyalty theory, with the caveat that the paper trail behind her is one name deep.
b. June 4, 1971 · in the Senate since 2011 · BYU Law · clerked for Alito (2006–07) · on the published 2016 and 2020 lists
On Trump's first published list in 2016 and again in 2020; an Alito clerk twice over, on the Third Circuit and at the Court — he would be succeeding his own former boss.
The Senate Judiciary chairman, on the record in April 2026: 'if he does retire, I'm going to suggest that either Lee or Cruz be put on the Supreme Court.' Heritage called him an excellent choice. The market discounts him hard anyway, and the mechanics are untidy: Utah fills his seat by the governor choosing from three state-party names, and he has watched three vacancies pass without a nomination.
b. April 29, 1969 · confirmed May 25, 2017 · Berkeley Law · no Supreme Court clerkship · on the published 2016 list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.26 [+0.10, +0.41] — #180 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.65 (imputed) · CFscore +1.19 (donations)
Interviewed by Trump for the Kennedy seat in 2018; wrote Meriwether v. Hartop on compelled pronoun use; in 2026 launched a Substack about his own bloodwork, which the trade press read as an audition.
The longest-tenured shortlister — on the first published list in 2016, interviewed in 2018, still in every four-name field in 2026 — with family ties to the Vice President. Would be the first South Asian justice. At 57 he is the oldest of the front-runners, and youth is the criterion every account says the White House weighs most.
b. April 1, 1976 · confirmed May 9, 2019 · Yale Law · clerked for Alito (2008–09) · on the published 2020 list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.43 [+0.12, +0.74] — #83 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.40 (imputed) · CFscore +1.17 (donations)
Confirmed 52–41 over both home-state senators' objections; would be the first Asian American justice.
The sleeper. Alito, on the record, in 2025: 'Mike would make a superb choice' — the only candidate in the field carrying a sitting justice's public endorsement. A former Senate Judiciary counsel put his age in 'the sweet spot' and called him a nominee 'for whom one can count to 50 votes.' Park's own reaction: the possibility 'seems pretty remote.'
b. September 14, 1978 · term-limited, leaves office January 2027 · Harvard Law · no Supreme Court clerkship · never on a published list
Two-term governor who has appointed dozens of Florida judges; Navy JAG service at Guantanamo and in Iraq; no judicial service of his own.
The April 2026 Axios scoop is the rare kind of evidence that says the candidate wants it: a source close to DeSantis called the Court 'his dream job,' and he leaves office in January 2027 needing one. The same scoop carries the obstacle — Trump telling confidants DeSantis is 'begging' for a job, and trusting him less than his own appointees. Wanting the seat and being offered it are different facts.
b. February 14, 1978 · confirmed December 10, 2019 · Harvard Law · no Supreme Court clerkship · on the published 2020 list
JuDJIS: not scored — too few Almanac evaluations to score · JCS +0.40 (imputed) · CFscore +0.82
A Thomas-style originalist dissenting regularly from the Ninth Circuit's majorities; would be the first openly gay justice.
David Lat's dark horse, and still in the four-name field nineteen months later. The historic-first argument runs in both directions with this administration, which is why he sits mid-table rather than higher.
b. 1987 · confirmed July 14, 2025 · George Washington Law · clerked for Alito (2018–19) and Barrett (2020–21) · never on a published list
JuDJIS: not scored — confirmed in 2025, outside the 1990–2024 window
Trump's first judicial appointee of the second term; clerked for two sitting justices.
Nobody has reported her as a Supreme Court prospect, and this ranking says so plainly — she is here on structure, not sourcing. Thirty-nine years old, clerkships for two sitting justices, first appointee of the term. If the administration wants the longest possible tenure, this is what that pick looks like. A bet on the criteria rather than the reporting.
b. April 23, 1982 · confirmed March 5, 2019 · Duke Law · clerked for Thomas (2010–11) · on the published 2020 list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.37 [+0.22, +0.52] — #108 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.42 (imputed) · CFscore +0.85 (donations)
The youngest federal judge in the country at her confirmation; actively considered for the Ginsburg seat in 2020 before Barrett was chosen.
Already vetted for a Supreme Court seat once, a Thomas clerk who also clerked for Gorsuch, and 44. Thinner in the 2025-26 reporting than the men above her, which is the only reason she is not higher.
b. October 4, 1979 · confirmed November 14, 2019 · Stanford Law · clerked for Alito (2010–11) · on the published 2020 list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.30 [+0.06, +0.54] — #156 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.40 (imputed) · CFscore +1.23 (donations)
Two dissents later vindicated above — one cited approvingly by Gorsuch, one adopted unanimously by the Supreme Court on review.
The appellate craftsman's candidate: dissents that became law, an Alito clerkship, and steady presence in the trade-press fields without ever leading one.
b. 1972 · confirmed April 24, 2018 · LSU Law · no Supreme Court clerkship · on the published 2020 list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.17 [−0.04, +0.37] — #223 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.51 (imputed) · CFscore +1.38 (donations)
Lead counsel in Hobby Lobby before the bench; the 2023 Stanford Law shoutdown made him a movement celebrity.
A movement favorite whose fame is the wrong kind for a confirmation. An LSU degree in a field of Harvards and Chicagos — which this site's own law-school page suggests should matter less than it will.
b. August 6, 1964 · confirmed November 28, 2017 · Harvard Law · clerked for Thomas (1991–92) · on the published 2020 list
Measured: JuDJIS +0.20 [−0.01, +0.41] — #203 of 451 scored circuit judges · JCS +0.40 (imputed) · CFscore +1.19 (donations)
The leading feeder judge of the era — eighteen-plus clerks sent to the Supreme Court since 2018.
On credentials alone, arguably the strongest lawyer in the field. At 62 he is a decade too old for an administration that thinks in forty-year tenures, and everyone quoted in the reporting knows it.
b. December 12, 1972 · confirmed December 11, 2019 · Harvard Law · no Supreme Court clerkship · on the published 2020 list
JuDJIS: not scored — too few Almanac evaluations to score · JCS +0.40 (imputed) · CFscore +1.29
Rated 'not qualified' by the ABA at confirmation; a March 2026 dissent drew a written rebuke from 27 of the Ninth Circuit's 51 judges for its 'crude and vitriolic language.'
Beloved by the base and named on the advocacy-group shortlists, but the 27-judge rebuke is five months old and would be the first exhibit at any hearing. Ranked where the liabilities put him, not where the enthusiasm does.
b. August 21, 1969 · Solicitor General 2017–2020 · Chicago Law · clerked for Scalia (1997–98) · on the published 2020 list
Trump's first-term Solicitor General, on the published 2020 list; now runs Jones Day's Washington office.
Residue, ranked as such. On the 2020 list and in nobody's 2025-26 reporting; at 57 he is on the wrong side of the youth criterion, and a Jones Day book of business is a recusal problem waiting for a hearing. Here because leaving him off would misstate the published-list record, not because the evidence points at him.
b. August 14, 1987 · confirmed November 20, 2020 · Florida Law · clerked for Thomas (2018–19) · never on a published list
JuDJIS: not scored — a district judge; the published JuDJIS covers the circuit bench · CFscore +1.24
Struck down the federal transportation mask mandate in 2022; a Thomas clerk who also clerked for Katsas and Pryor.
This ranking's second structural bet, made for the same reason as Hermandorfer's and flagged the same way: zero shortlist reporting anywhere, including the advocacy lists. Thirty-nine years old, a Thomas clerk, and the youngest plausible name in the country — against an ABA not-qualified rating at confirmation and no appellate service. If the administration reaches for maximum tenure, the reach looks like this.
The Bench Being Built Underneath
Trump's second-term circuit confirmations, ten in all — scarce because vacancies are scarce. Three of the ten served as his personal lawyers, which is the structurally new fact about this bench. Only Bove has Supreme Court shortlist reporting; Hermandorfer and Flowers are the two youngest and most credentialed, and nobody has reported either as a prospect yet.
Whitney Hermandorfer (6th Circuit, b. 1987) — clerked for Alito and Barrett
Benjamin Flowers (6th Circuit, b. 1987) — clerked for Scalia
Eric Tung (9th Circuit, b. 1984) — clerked for Scalia and Gorsuch
Once Listed, Now Quiet
On a published Trump list once, still on the bench, absent from the 2025-26 reporting. Their moment appears to have passed — which a future update may reverse.
| Judge | Circuit | Born | Listed | Was |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbara Lagoa | 11th | 1967 | 2020 | the reported front-runner for the Ginsburg seat before Barrett |
| Joan Larsen | 6th | 1968 | 2016 | a Scalia clerk whose vaccine-mandate dissent the Court adopted |
| David Stras | 8th | 1974 | 2016 | a Thomas clerk; wrote the 8th Circuit's Voting Rights Act private-action decision |
| Britt Grant | 11th | 1978 | 2017 | clerked for Kavanaugh on the D.C. Circuit |
| Allison Eid | 10th | 1965 | 2016 | a Thomas clerk, on the first list Trump ever published |
| Kevin Newsom | 11th | 1972 | 2017 | a Souter clerk — the field's one Democratic-appointee chambers, which may be the explanation |
| Kenneth Lee | 9th | 1975 | 2020 | named in 2024 pieces, absent since |
Counted Out, and Why
Names that circulate — on the old published lists, the advocacy compilations, or the Wikipedia speculation page — that this ranking leaves out, each for a stated reason. Being counted out is a judgment with a date on it, like everything else here.
Josh Hawley (Senator, Missouri; a Roberts clerk; on the published 2020 list) — Took himself out on the record in September 2020 — 'no interest' in serving — and has never retracted it.
Tom Cotton (Senator, Arkansas; on the published 2020 list) — Also self-removed on the record in September 2020, and no reporting since contradicts him.
Todd Blanche (Attorney General of the United States since August 10, 2026) — Confirmed to run the Justice Department two weeks before this page was written, after a bruising fight with Republican defectors. Nobody spends that capital twice in a year.
Matthew Kacsmaryk (District judge, N.D. Texas; the mifepristone injunction) — Zero shortlist reporting anywhere, and the signature ruling was reversed nine to nothing. Famous is not the same as in contention.
Thomas Rex Lee (Mike Lee's brother; ex-Utah Supreme Court; on the 2016 and 2020 lists) — Retired from the bench in 2022 and absent from all current reporting. The Lee in contention is the senator.
The 2016 state-court cohort (Blackwell, Canady, Mansfield, Young, and the rest of the first lists) — A decade older, mostly off the bench, and named in nothing since. The published lists were a campaign document, not a pipeline.
Who is most likely to be the next Supreme Court justice?
Assuming a Republican appointment, the reporting has converged for nearly two years on a field led by Andrew Oldham and James Ho of the Fifth Circuit, with Neomi Rao, Solicitor General John Sauer and — on the strength of the President's own words — Senator Ted Cruz close behind. This page ranks 20 candidates from every bench with the reasoning stated, as of August 24, 2026.
Is there a Supreme Court vacancy right now?
No. No vacancy, and no change since Ketanji Brown Jackson arrived in June 2022. All nine justices sat the full 2025-26 term. The next vacancy is a matter of speculation, and most of it concerns the Court's two oldest members, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito — both of whom have hired clerks for future terms and shown every sign of staying.
Did Justice Alito retire in 2026?
No. NPR reported on June 30, 2026 that he was retiring and retracted the story within six minutes — the reporter had misheard a bystander's remark about Court staff retirements. In August 2026 Alito told the Wall Street Journal: 'Obviously I'm here for another term.'
Does the nominee have to be a judge?
No — more than a third of all justices ever appointed had no prior judicial service, and this ranking now includes seven candidates who are not federal appeals judges. The most direct evidence in the whole field belongs to two senators: Trump said of Ted Cruz, on the record in January 2026, "If I nominate him for the United States Supreme Court, I will get 100% of the vote," and Judiciary Chairman Grassley has said he would suggest Lee or Cruz for the next vacancy.
Methodology
Hard facts — birth years, confirmation dates, clerkships, law schools — are verified against the Federal Judicial Center’s Biographical Directory of Article III Federal Judges, linked from each name. Full birth dates beyond the FJC’s year come from public reference sources, and where only a year is documented, the age is shown as the honest pair it is. Shortlist claims cite the specific published list or the specific piece of reporting. The ranking is editorial, its criteria are stated above, and the page carries an as-of date because it is meant to be revised as the reporting moves. History’s advice on pages like this one: in 2020 the reported front-runner was Barbara Lagoa, and the nominee was Amy Coney Barrett.
Ideology measures: Kevin L. Cope, "An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology," Political Analysis 34, no. 2 (2026): 258–277; replication data doi:10.7910/DVN/KZ5BJF (CC0). Lee Epstein, Andrew D. Martin, Jeffrey A. Segal & Chad Westerland, "The Judicial Common Space," JLEO 23 (2007): 303–325; 2024 release. Adam Bonica & Maya Sen, Judicial DIME Scores for Federal Judges (2024 update), doi:10.7910/DVN/CK3EEL (CC0). Scores of exactly zero with a degenerate confidence interval are evaluation-starved artifacts and are excluded from the ranks shown here (19 of 470 judges). The demonstration of why the measured score beats the imputed one: John Minor Wisdom, the Eisenhower Republican who helped desegregate the Fifth Circuit, is the third most liberal judge of 470 by JuDJIS while his imputed JCS calls him conservative.